It’s that time of year again! Basketball season is about to begin and we can all go back to pretending that football was a fever dream brought on by drinking too many Keystones in college.
Every year, the ADB staff gives you some soon-to-be-wrong predictions. You can read some past words and hold them against us here: 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014.
Let’s begin…
Record Prediction
Meghan Bard: 21-10, and I won’t even be upset about that.
Russ Steinberg: 20-11, but they’re a reasonable bubble team well into February.
Tyler Wilkinson: As you may remember from recent roundtables, I am sticking with the worst possible scenario in these predictions because they’ve usually been right. With that in mind I’ll say 17-14.
Peter Bard: 24-7, AAC Tourney title, Surprise Sweet Sixteen Sappearance, and UConn is BacK babby!
Kevin Meacham: 18-13 (10-8 AAC). Would love to be wrong but the last two years have beaten a lot of the optimism out of me. Hurley’s going to get them to play harder, but these same guys were blown out way too much last year for me to expect a 20-25 win season.
Alex Cohen: 22-9
Best Quality
Meghan: Guards. Quite possibly the three best players on the team are going to be Jalen Adams, Alterique Gilbert and Christian Vital (with due respect to Sid Wilson, who has yet to play a collegiate basketball game), and I expect those three to be on the floor together a fair amount. Three guard lineups are my favorite, and with Tarin Smith and Brendan Adams backing them up, assuming Gilbert’s shoulder really isn’t mashed potatoes, that’s a hell of a backcourt.
Tyler: Coaching. That’s the biggest difference between this team and last year’s disaster squad. Will it be enough to carry virtually the same roster to a few more wins? Maybe! But I’m equally looking forward to seeing some of the young players actually learn and improve as the season wears on.
Kevin: When everyone’s healthy, there’s no reason that Adams, Gilbert and Wilson can’t be the best three-headed scoring monster in the league, if you believe in the things people have said about Sid.
Peter: Guards! Guards! Guards!
Russ: A healthy backcourt of Adams/Gilbert/Vital would be so much fun, especially after hearing about Gilbert’s game against Harvard. He’d take some heat off of Adams in terms of having to carry the team late in games, while Vital can go nuts as a third option and pick fights with ECU players if he’s off his game.
Alex: They play a really great game called basketball, which is an objectively better game than football.
Worst Quality
Kevin: The talent level beyond those three (and Christian Vital) isn’t great. Rebounding and interior defense is probably going to be a big issue all season.
Russ: What’s the word for not-guards? I’m not familiar with such a thing, nor are UConn fans as a whole after the last few years. I think at times Polley, Carlton, Cobb, and even Kwint showed some ability last year, but are you ready to bank on any of them contributing consistently? I wonder if Hurley can unleash something in Yakwe that disappeared the last couple years at St. John’s.
Peter: Unguards
Tyler: Seems like perennially we choose between three-point shooting and rebounding here. I’ll go with shooting this time.
Alex: They are sure to get our hopes up at some point for a deep tournament run but ultimately the front court talent just isn’t there this year.
Meghan: The Frontcourt of Misfit Toys. The frontcourt was definitely an issue last year, and I’m not at all sure what these guys will do with a new coach, but I’m skeptical.
WTF Loss
Alex: Tulsa, obvs
Meghan: Look, as long as we don’t lose in fucking Tulsa this year, I’ll be ok. Me and my mentions can’t take that again this year. (It will be Tulsa)
Peter: We will say WTF at some point in all losses, but assuming we’re playing in Tulsa this year, that will be the answer.
Kevin: In 2022, Dan Hurley will coach UConn to a 30-1 regular season. The one loss will be a weeknight 9 p.m. game at Tulsa. We’re never winning in goddamn Tulsa, and I will answer this question the same every year until the sun explodes.
Russ: Tulsa’s the easy answer, but I think this one will be especially cruel. Going into the final game of the season, UConn will have an outside shot at playing its way into the at-large field with a good AAC Tournament. Then they’ll shit on that by losing at East Carolina to end the season.
Tyler: at USF on Jan. 2nd. First game following Villanova, Christmas and New Year’s and UConn always shits itself to start the conference season. I’m already mad.
WTF Win
Meghan: Fuck it, I’m going with Cuse at MSG.
Russ: I don’t think Cuse is going to happen (sorry), but I do think they can beat Iowa in the 2K Classic third-place game. The Hawkeyes could be a tournament team and a win over them would be great both for confidence and the resume.
Peter: I’m into optimism mode, so I’m going to go with our NCAA Tournament Second Round Win Over Duke
Tyler: I’m gonna pick Arizona even though that feels cheap since UConn historically (ignoring last year) owns Arizona.
Kevin: We’ll beat a top 50 or 60 team on the road for the first time since….uh….when the Sterling Gibbs/Shonn Miller team won at Texas a couple years back? One of Cincinnati, UCF, Wichita or SMU at any rate.
Alex: Nova. They’re gonna be up as hell for it and it comes deep enough in the season for us to gel a bit.
Who is the X Factor?
Kevin: Eric Cobb. If he shows up in shape and focused, I think he’s got the skills to be a productive player in this conference at a position where UConn badly needs one. Cobb was the team’s best defensive rebounder by a mile in a limited sample, and as long as he never, ever shoots a 3-pointer, he has some offensive utility. It’d be a legit game-changer if he became Alex Oriakhi.
Tyler: Everyone other than Jalen? No? Not allowed? Then Alterique Gilbert. His shoulders staying intact might be the difference between a sneaky strong tournament resume and another season around .500.
Peter: Alterique Gilbert’s shoulder is certainly a matter of concern for all, as a healthy season from Gilbert would mean a lot, but the real answer is Every Big Man. If two of Yakwe/Cobb/Carlton/Polley/Whaley/Kwint/Diarra can be functional and healthy, the dynamic of the team completely changes. Can they? We’ll see!
Meghan: It’s probably Gilbert, because if he’s healthy this team could be actually good, but if he’s still mashed potatoes, it’s going to be a rough season.
Russ: It’s Gilbert’s shoulder, but to provide some variety here, I’ll toss in another option: Vital’s three-point shot. He took way too many last year for someone who only made 31 percent. If he suddenly learned how to shoot, that’d be a nice surprise.
Alex: Danny Hurley. Can he actually coach these guys to perform better? It’s going to be a fun experiment, if nothing else. I often wonder in various sports how much effect a coach has on team performance. (With rare exceptions, I think it basically doesn’t matter in baseball but it matters a great deal in soccer.) I really hope he can take the existing players — who, based on their recruit rankings, should be much better than their performance last season — to the next level.
Breakout Player
Peter: Hopefully, Sid Wilson. Wilson definitely has the kind of talent to be an impact player right away, and with any luck, he’ll be a consistent scorer from the wing (and maybe contribute a little bit at the four).
Alex: I really can’t decide between Sid and Alterique. Having both play well and stay healthy would mean a ton. I’ll go with Alterique because I love me an injury redemption arc.
Russ: Dare I say Eric Cobb? We’ve been hearing good things and he’s lost approximately 400 pounds in the offseason. And Hurley loves him.
Meghan: Really pulling for Sid Wilson, who is, supposedly, very talented with NBA level upside, but he hasn’t played in awhile. I’m hoping Hurley can work some magic and by midseason he’ll be shooting 38 percent from three (what? a girl can hope).
Kevin: Alterique Gilbert. On a team that badly needs a ball-handler who can shoot 3s, Gilbert should be a godsend if he stays healthy. His shoulder will be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the 2018-19 season, because UConn’s ceiling is considerably higher with him playing 25 minutes per game for four months.
Tyler: Brendan Adams! Early reports indicate he might be the team’s best (only?) shooter at the moment. Paired with his size, strength, athleticism and existing relationship with Hurley and he could be in store for a lot of minutes, especially if UConn relies on majority three-guard sets (it should).
Jalen Adams Over/Under: 16 points, 6 assists
Meghan: Over, under
Kevin: Over (17.1), over (6.2).
Russ: Under because he won’t have to, under but I hope I’m wrong.
Peter: Over, Under
Tyler: Over, under. I’m expecting basically the same totals as last year (18.1 and 4.7) with hopefully more efficiency behind it and more production from his teammates.
Alex: Over, Under. If Alterique is healthy, I think they’ll split handling so that might cut into his potential assists.
Team Leaders in Scoring, Rebounding & Assists
Peter: Jalen Adams, Eric Cobb (apparently), Alterique Gilbert
Tyler: Adams, Vital, Adams (same as last year).
Alex: Jalen, Diarra, Alterique
Meghan: Jalen, Cobb, Gilbert
Kevin: Adams, Cobb, Adams.
Russ: Jalen, Cobb, Jalen
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel Award (bench guy who inexplicably leads the team in scoring once or twice)
Meghan: I’m going to go out on a limb and say Brendan Adams.
Tyler: I definitely think BAdams will have a game or two where he gets hot and puts up numbers — especially during the early part of the schedule.
Russ: Tyler Polley. Remember when he decided last year that he could shoot threes? That was fun.
Alex: Chosen at random: Brendan Adams.
Peter: This award screams “Tyler Polley”
Kevin: Tyler Polley’s gonna have a game where he goes 7-for-7 from 3, or something. If he doesn’t count (because he’ll probably start multiple games,) then Brendan Adams.
Wild Card (Literally Any Other Prediction)
Meghan: Hurley comes on the podcast.
Alex: Notorious media darling Danny Hurley comes on Russell Steinberg’s A Dime Back Podcast featuring Big Ron [edit: DAMMIT MEGHAN!]
Tyler: Two of Whaley, Carlton, Diarra and Polley transfer at the end of the season.
Peter: In between winning the AAC Tournament and being eliminated in the NCAA Tournament, Jalen Adams will be compared to Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier 400,000 times.
Russ: Jalen lets me play on his scooter.
Kevin: UConn misses the NCAA Tournament but everyone is fine with it because Hurley recruits The Good Players, and we get a summer to be irrationally excited about the 2019-20 Huskies.
