This is part of a series previewing the 2016-17 basketball season. You can always send us weekly mailbag questions here.
Storrs South asks: what player do you see emerging as a top contributor on @UConnMBB this season not named Purvis/Adams/Brimah?
Terry Larrier. By all accounts, he’s been killing it in the gym for the past 14 months, and I’m very confident that he can make up for a good portion of the production lost with Daniel Hamilton. If Larrier is performing well, he allows Kevin Ollie so much lineup flexibility.
I think it’s important that he be given time to adjust — we saw with Purvis that it can be challenging to get back into the swing of things after a year on the bench — but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Larrier becomes the team’s leading scorer.
Russ asks: What should we expect from Natalie Butler this season?
She’ll almost certainly be UConn’s starting center — which is not un-terrifying. Butler doesn’t have the speed or athleticism that UConn has grown accustomed to over the last half decade of Stef Dolson, Breanna Stewart and Morgan Tuck handling shit inside, but she is clearly the Huskies’ best option to anchor the post. She’ll need to stay healthy, stay out of foul trouble and find her place in what should be a fast-paced UConn offense. I think she will end up averaging over five rebounds and somewhere around six-to-nine points (nice).
Jalletto asks: what do you expect to be the biggest frustration this year?
The recent history of Kevin Ollie-coached UConn teams suggests the offense likely won’t play as fast or efficiently as they could. As big proponents of both fast-paced tempo and #points, I personally will find that frustrating. Especially with the illegally athletic guards on the roster, this team should be constantly in transition. I expect a combination of offensive strategy and rebounding struggles to prevent that from happening. One day the Huskies will score over 75 points per game again (last done in 2009) and I will weep with joy. #MakeUConnPointsAgain.
Brain asks: Over/under for Jalen Adams: 15 pts & 4 assist per game.
My initial reaction was to say under for both. To get to those numbers, Adams would have to essentially double his output from a year ago (7.3 points, 2.4 assists), and I’m not sure that’s a reasonable expectation. Then I looked at Ryan Boatright’s sophomore year (15.4 points, 4.4 assists) and reconsidered. I think I’ll still play it cautious and take the under, but those targets are certainly attainable.
Raymond asks: Of the freshmen who looks like a immediate impact player?
I wrote a preview of the entire freshman class last week, which essentially answers this question, so give that a read. Short answer: Gilbert should be able to play a large role on the team immediately. UConn is dependent on him bringing genuine point guard skills to the offense right away. Keep an eye on Juwan Durham though. He might have the highest upside of the class,. If he can get ahead of schedule with both his development and his continued rehab from injury, he could have the biggest impact on this roster — playing a power forward spot that is the team’s biggest question mark.
Jalletto asks: Do you agree with me that Facey has a Hilton Armstrong like year?
Hilton Armstrong is the absolute best-case scenario for Facey and literally all other slow-developing big men. Do I think it’s likely that Facey averages 9.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks like Armstrong did in 2006? No. I also don’t think Facey can play his way into an NBA lottery pick as Armstrong did. I am, however, relatively confident that Facey can cut down on his fouls and stay on the court long enough to be UConn’s unquestioned best rebounder.
Matt G asks: What are the realistic expectations for Brimah?
Assuming he can stay healthy, the lowest bar to set for Brimah is an elite interior defender and an occasional offensive contributor. I’m skeptical of anticipating much more than that given a few factors. First, his developmental path since entering college has been essentially flat. He improved on cutting down on fouls, allowing his one elite trait (shot-blocking, obviously) room to shine, but otherwise he has stagnated both physically and production-wise. Brimah did have a complete offseason this summer — and participated in some NBA workouts this spring — which should be a predictor of improvement, but at this point, I’m taking the cautious approach and keeping my expectations low. I’ll guess Brimah approximates his 2015 numbers with a slight uptick in rebounds.
Sam asks: who will lead the women in scoring, rebounding and assists?
Scoring: Katie Lou Samuelson — It hurts me somewhat to skip Nurse here but I’m betting heavy on KLS this year. All-American-type betting.
Rebounding: Gabby Williams. She can do no wrong. I wish we were related. She rebounds well.
Assists: Intrigue! This question should really be “how fast will Crystal Dangerfield become a total badass?” I’ll say right now. Dangerfield followed by Nurse.
Brain asks: Can Ollie’s recruiting compensate for the lack of prestige of the AAC?
I think that question has essentially been answered by the Top 5 and the 2017 class currently headlined by Makai Ashton-Langford. I’m also fairly confident in Ollie’s chances of landing star recruit Hamadou Diallo. UConn’s history — and the unpredictable nature, and gigantic audience for the NCAA Tournament — should keep them in the national conversation for the foreseeable future. The long-term concerns are twofold: can the athletic department as a whole make enough money to keep Ollie well-paid and keep the facilities competitive nationally? And can UConn’s star players have continued success in the NBA? As long as Ollie is winning games in Storrs, and former Huskies are playing All-Star caliber ball at the next level, UConn basketball should be OK.
Penfield asks: if Jim Boeheim was running against Rick Pitino for POTUS who would you vote for?
This is a tough question. On the one hand, Boeheim’s reign would be awful, but it would eventually be erased from history. On the other, Pitino can’t even control his own program. How would he manage the nation? In the end, I’d cast my vote for Pitino in hopes that his term would only last 15 seconds.
Storrs South asks: what are you expectations for attendance given home opponents on Men’s side and loss of Big 3 on Women’s side?
Pain.
The men will stay above the 10,000-per-game mark, likely keeping them around 40th nationally, where they finished 2016. The team has some preseason buzz and a national ranking, but both of those things could be imperiled by a tough run in Maui early in the year. If they lose two games, it’s hard to imagine the program will sell a ton of tickets to the usual array of awful AAC home games. Making matters slightly worse, the only quasi-notable out-of-conference home game this season is Auburn, who will visit Hartford in December. Unfortunately, that game is two days before Christmas… on a Wednesday afternoon (2:30pm). That is a recipe for a poorly-attended game. If they can knock off a few tough teams in Maui (hi, UNC) and sneak into the top 10 nationally before conference play begins, more people will be willing to shell out $30 to watch UConn/ECU on a Sunday evening.
On the women’s side, you’d expect to see a drop with the three most noteworthy players having left the team. But unlike the men, the women’s home schedule is PACKED with really awesome non-conference games. By December 1, they will face Baylor, Dayton and DePaul on campus. That is intense, and they will likely be rewarded by high fan turnout. After that, things get dicey. The AAC is awful this year on the women’s side, and fans might not be as motivated to watch this young team without the Breanna Stewart-centric storylines in play. I think they’ll approximate last year’s attendance numbers — either fourth or fifth in the country.
Peter asks: what are your seeding predictions for MBB and WBB in the NCAA tournament?
The women will be a 1 seed. Even if they lose a handful of their out-of-conference games, I’d be legit shocked if they lose an AAC game. I feel like their worst-case scenario is a 20-1 streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. Add in the “don’t fuck with Geno” factor and I’ll put all of Russ’s money on a 1 seed.
For the men, I’ll guess a 7 seed. For all of their talent, they will lose some games this year as they figure out how to play well together. They’ll also likely lose at least one inexplicable game in conference play that sends liquor sales skyrocketing throughout Connecticut. I’m hopeful they’ll have things figured out by the end of the year, but I’m not super confident that (A) it will be enough to overcome early-season losses or (B) the selection committee will show any respect to AAC teams in seeding.
Penfield asks: If Ronald Mallett finished his time machine would you want Rodney Purvis to travel back in time to help UConn defeat Duke in the 1964 NCAA tournament or would you be too worried about the consequences of altering the past?
I feel like we’ve answered some sort of time machine question before, but that’s not going to stop me from also doing it now. I ain’t give a hell ‘bout 1964. If I’m changing the outcome of any one game in UConn history it’s probably the Laettner game (there, you still get an anti-Duke moment). I could also be talked into the Florida game in 1994. Am I worried about changing the present by altering the past? No.
Jon asks: Is Geno going to get 12 this year?
Yes. If you bet against Geno, you’re an idiot and you deserve the outcome of your horrible life choices.
Mike asks: last season our KenPom “Luck” rating was -.036 (269th in the country) which is pretty rough luck. Can things go our way this year?
Believe it or not, UConn fared even worse in that stat in 2015 (-0.65, 318th), Can’t be unlucky three years in a row, right? At that point it’s not bad luck, it’s a curse and we’ve all gotta find a Russ to sacrifice. But, you know how they say it’s better to be lucky than good? That’s stupid. UConn needs to be good.
Storrs South asks: building off the improvements we have seen to the game day experience at football games, what would you like to see for MBB/WBB?
Let’s start with a big one, either fix the goddamn XL Center or let it fall to the ground. I’m sick of this game. It’s never going to be a real arena that people enjoy visiting with piecemeal improvements and half-measure fixes.
At Gampel there are two obvious fixes. One: figure out a better way to get people in and out of campus faster. The process of arriving, parking and exiting is so onerous that I’m certain it’s dissuading some fans from attending. Two: sell beer. Going to a sporting event without beer at the concessions is like going trick-or-treating and getting a toothbrush. Give the people what they want.
