We received a mailbag question this week that was a bit too complex for our typical Friday feature. Mostly because it took some research to find the answer. Our friends @NoEscalators asked “Why is UConn so horrible at getting to the line and am I the only one it drives insane?”
@ADimeBack Why is UConn so horrible at getting to the line and am I the only one it drives insane?
— We take the stairs (@NoEscalators) December 4, 2015
Let’s start with part two of that query: no. You aren’t the only one.
For part one, there’s no one answer but a confluence of statistical and anecdotal explanations.
Let’s begin with a look at the depths of UConn’s trouble getting to the line. The Huskies have attempted 134 free throws in their seven games this season. That total puts them in a tie for 246th place nationally, next to some powerhouse names like Wofford and the College of Charleston. They average just over 19 free throw attempts per game. Shonn Miller and Rodney Purvis are the only players on the roster averaging more than three attempts per game.
Ordinarily we’d tell you not to worry about an early-season seven game sample size, but UConn has struggled to get to the line for several years now.
To illustrate the point, we’ll use the Free Throw Rate (FTr) metric. FTr is the number of free throw attempts per each field goal attempt — as should be obvious, the higher the number, the better. Currently, UConn’s FTr is .312. That’s bad. Bad enough that — if continued — would register the lowest total in UConn’s championship era (chart below). Bad enough to place them 296th nationally. Oddly enough, their rank last year? Also 296th.
To find the last truly great team at getting to the line, you’d need to travel all the way back to Hasheem Thabeet’s tenure. During the 2007-08 season, with Thabeet inside, the Huskies finished second in the nation in FTr (.481).
So why are the Huskies having such a hard time getting to the line this season? Sample size! Yeah, we told you to overlook sample size earlier, but that was stupid.
At Cornell last season, Miller averaged 5.6 attempts. At Seton Hall, Sterling Gibbs averaged 4.7 (and 7.3 the year before). Despite the difference in competition — especially for Miller — those guys didn’t forget how to get to the line. Their usage rates will drop in UConn’s offense, but it’s reasonable to expect their numbers to climb closer to their averages as the season wears on. Gibbs was extremely efficient at getting to the line while at Seton Hall, posting an FTr of .594. This season he’s all the way down to .262.
Another factor that complicates the statistics is how much zone defense UConn has faced this season. Essentially, half of their opponents have forced the Huskies to adjust their offensive strategies and adapt to the zone. The guards haven’t been able to penetrate as they would against man-to-man, and have settled for long jumpers instead. UConn is attempting over 21 three-pointers per game — up from 18 last season.
Anomalies aside, there are a few other reasons that would explain UConn’s trouble getting to the line. For one, the Huskies don’t target their post players often. Amida Brimah is not going to get the touches in the post to get to the line at a high level — which is disappointing since he is a relatively solid free throw shooter. When browsing UConn’s history, it becomes apparent that the teams most effective at getting to the line were the ones whose offenses heavily focused on front-court scoring.
Secondly, the Huskies are running much of their offense through Daniel Hamilton. It’s hard to complain about that considering his near-pornographic stat line this season, but one area where he struggles is getting to the line. In his first season-plus, Hamilton’s FTr is a dismal .231 (averaging about 2.4 attempts per game). The only players on the roster with a lower rate this season are Jalen Adams and Sam Cassell, Jr.
Overall, there’s reason to be nervous about the Huskies’ ability to get to the line but it’s too early to panic. The most pressing issue is Gibbs. He needs to attack and get to the line more — not only to help ameliorate the problem, but because that’s the best use of his offensive abilities. Aside from that, give it time and the team numbers may creep up on their own against more man-to-man defenses.
