Tonight’s game at Temple begins a critical four game stretch for the UConn Huskies as they look to build on recent momentum and cement their status as an NCAA Tournament caliber team.
The Huskies have lost their last four games against Temple, including a two-point loss at home last month and a drubbing when they last visited Temple in March of 2015. In that game, UConn led by five at the half before collapsing in a 75-63 defeat.
Temple has a quality team this year. They’ve beaten each of the best AAC teams at least once. But they’ve also lost to East Carolina (non-conference). UConn is capable of winning tonight’s game, and could be in some trouble if they don’t.
Over the next two-and-a-half weeks, the Huskies will play at Temple, on campus against Tulsa, in Hartford versus SMU and at Cincinnati.
Along with UConn, those four teams top the AAC standings and are competing for, at best, only three spots in the NCAA Tournament (with SMU ineligible). UConn and Cincinnati appear to be in good shape, but that could change in a hurry if the Huskies falter this month.
Most mock NCAA Tournament brackets feature UConn at this point. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi — famed bracketologist — most recently placed the Huskies as a nine-seed. KenPom, with their advanced statistical porn, pegs UConn as the 19th best team in the country currently, let’s call that a five-seed. A strong run through the next four games could push the Huskies even further up these rankings. They would also surely become more noticed in the national conversation as they (likely) would reenter the top 25 polls.
What would a “strong run” look like? Either 4-0 or 3-1 with the one loss being to Cincinnati or SMU. There’s no shame in losing to SMU, though you would expect the Huskies to put up a good fight on their home-away-from-home court. The two will also face off in Dallas on March 3. Likewise, losing on the road to Cincinnati is excusable, but avoidable. UConn lost a 58-57 contest last month on a borderline foul call and without their starting center. The Huskies are capable of winning both games, but a split wouldn’t be the end of the world.
UConn is better than Tulsa and Temple, but lost to each once already this season. Getting swept by an immediate rival is a bad look at any time, but even more so now with the teams so close together in the standings. UConn should have superior advanced metrics on their side, but put in a head-to-head comparison before the troglodytes of the selection committee, having a favorable record against their most tangential conference competition would be ideal.
The worst case scenario is both obvious and unlikely. The Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season at the moment, winning their last three games by an average of over 21 points. Center Amida Brimah has returned. The offense is rounding into form behind Daniel Hamilton’s do-everything style, and the defense is among the best in the nation. A split over the next four games wouldn’t be ideal, but isn’t likely to be catastrophic. A dominant performance, however, will elevate the Huskies back to where they started the season – with expectations as a Sweet Sixteen caliber team.
Take care of Temple this evening, then Tulsa, I can see a loss against SMU, and us grinding one out in Cincy.
3-1 over this stretch puts us at 20-7, a fringe T25 team.
A suggestion for Ollie- sit Brimah until the first TV timeout. Save that inevitable foul that he gets while getting into the flow of the game in the first couple minutes. And us having to see his incredulous look when he arm bars someone off the block and he has a quick foul that they then have to manage for the rest of the half.
Can’t wait to watch this game tonight. We really need to win it to get our revenge! I can’t believe that Temple has won the last 4 games we have played against them. They’re definitely a good team but I like our chances with how we’ve been playing. Go huskies!