UConn has had a generally frustrating season. Three of their key players (Sterling Gibbs, Rodney Purvis and Daniel Hamilton) have endured painful shooting slumps. Arguably their most important player, Amida Brimah, has been sidelined with a finger injury since late December. Their 14-6 record is light on signature wins and now features four single-possession losses following their 58-57 defeat against Cincinnati on Thursday night.
Some of those points are interrelated. Gibbs struggled through several early season losses. Purvis went so cold in a loss to Tulsa that it cost him his spot in the starting lineup, and Hamilton hasn’t been the same player since Brimah got hurt — literally adding insult to injury.
Anecdotally, it seems that UConn has struggled to close out these games. We got a firsthand look at this against Cincinnati when the Huskies offense missed eight of their final nine shots as a two point lead with four minutes left turned into a one point defeat. With that in mind, let’s examine what’s really happening in these close games.
First we have to set some arbitrary guidelines. Our key marker is going to be the four minute mark of the second half. We want to see how UConn is performing in the last ten percent of the game, both on offense and on defense. Given that, we’re defining a “close game” as one in which the score was within ten in either direction at that four minute mark. This gets all of those cupcake games out of here, preventing them from messing up the math. It also eliminates the Michigan game.
This leaves us with 11 games. In order: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland, at Texas, at Tulane, Temple, Memphis, at Tulsa, at Houston, Georgetown and Cincinnati. Each of these games was within seven points at the four minute mark, the largest margin was in the Maryland game in which UConn closed the gap to three before… the incident.
The Huskies were 5-6 in those games.
In the final four minutes of close games, UConn outscored their opponents 83-75, aided by impressive closeouts of Tulane and Georgetown. The Huskies are also taking very good care of the ball down the stretch, committing only four turnovers while forcing 15. The rebounding numbers are essentially a wash. However, they are shooting 29.4 percent from the floor and 24.1 percent from three.
In the first 36 minutes of close games, UConn has posted a true shooting percentage of 52.2 percent. In the final four minutes, that drops to 47.7 percent. That is a fairly precipitous drop. Opponents have also experienced a decline, although barely, dropping from 50.6 percent to 50.0 percent.
It could be worse. UConn is fortunate to be a very good free throw shooting team. They’re averaging over seven attempts in the final four minutes, hitting 83.7 of them. That was crucial in the Memphis game when the Huskies held on to a three point lead in the final four minutes, despite making only one field goal, by sinking ten free throws to seal the win.
Now that we’ve mathematically deduced what we already knew, that UConn struggles to finish close games, let’s turn our focus to why that is. Here’s my best theory.
UConn’s offense is intentionally structureless. Coach Kevin Ollie stresses motion and ball-movement, hoping to get out and run on the fast break and banking on the creativity of his guards. Generally, this works relatively well. In the first 36 minutes of close games, UConn is shooting 41.6 percent from the floor and 37.4 percent from three. As the clock winds down, however, and the game is on the line, opposing defenses have seen everything UConn has to offer. By not running a diverse array of offensive sets, the Huskies render themselves easier to guard as the game wears on. Barring foul trouble, opponents are able to keep their best players on the court and devote more effort to defense knowing the game is nearly over. The Huskies has been unable to adjust, settling for bad shots and taking more three-pointers while seeing fewer go in.
The Huskies need to become multidimensional on offense for a full 40 minutes. Having a larger playbook (or more accurately, a variety of motion, spread and zone sets) and employing them with less predictability will make them harder to lock down at the end of games – assuming they can do it well. This current team has the talent to improvise their way into some victories – especially against bad defensive teams – that on-court creativity they depend on should carry over into creative offensive sets to run throughout the game.
UConn’s defense has been great all year, even with Brimah sidelined. That continues to be true in close games, and is the primary reason that the Huskies can’t be counted out for a postseason run. Yet, until they progress in their late game offensive strategy, it will be difficult to live up to their full potential.
