With Daniel Hamilton’s recent decision to enter the NBA Draft many UConn fans have been reminded of a similar decision made two years earlier by another Husky forward, DeAndre Daniels, leading to endless comparisons and an equating of their circumstances.
There are enough similarities between the two to keep the conversation from being ridiculous. Both were highly-touted recruits. Daniels was the 16th ranked recruit in the 2011 class, while Hamilton was ranked 18th in 2014. Both played well enough on disappointing teams to earn high expectations, and both departed the university after strong, but inconsistent, seasons that left fans (and scouts) wanting more.
That being said, a closer examination of their circumstances reveals a chasm between the two.
First, let’s pause for a quick caveat. We’re only going to tackle this conversation in terms of basketball skill and earning potential at the professional level. Obviously there are a myriad of other determinations that influence a player’s decision to leave school early – money problems at home, academic issues, etc. – but not knowing each player’s personal situation, it’d be irresponsible to speculate.
What we do know is that Daniels was already 22 years old at the time of the draft. He had just won a national championship alongside Shabazz Napier. In that 2014 NCAA Tournament, Daniels had two of the best games of his college career, 27 and and 10 against Iowa State and 20 and 10 against one-seed Florida in the Final Four. Daniels’ stock had never been higher after showing off in front of millions of viewers on the biggest possible stage.
At the time of his announcement, Daniels was projected as a late first round pick.
By the time his workouts, interviews and NBA auditions were complete, he dropped to the 37th pick where he was selected by the Toronto Raptors. The team stashed Daniels in Australia where he battled injuries before returning this summer to the D-League.
The last two years have retroactively colored Daniels’ decision in a negative light. If he had a time machine, he might have made a different choice in 2014. But there is a legitimate argument to be made — even now — that he made the right decision. His talent at the collegiate level was maxed out. Daniels was never going to get bulkier, or faster. He got a reasonable amount of production out of his skill set. Had he returned to play on the ill-fated 2015 team that lost in the first round of the NIT, his numbers might not have looked much better (though the team might have made the tournament).
Also, being the 37th pick isn’t a death sentence. Daniels drew the bad luck of ending up with a franchise that didn’t really need him. If you look at the top-performing players from the 2014 draft, four of the top ten in win shares were selected after Daniels. Hell, Jeff Hornacek, Bill Laimbeer, and Manu Ginobili were the 37th picks in their drafts. Obviously, any early entrant wants to end up in the first round to get guaranteed money, but there’s no shame in being a second round pick.
Now, let’s get to Hamilton. Only 20 years old, Hamilton is a relative youngster. He played well in UConn’s five postseason tournament games, averaging over 18 points and ten rebounds, but struggled in the team’s spotlight game against Kansas, missing eight shots from inside the arc against bigger and stronger defenders – the kind he’s likely to encounter in the NBA.
Like Daniels, Hamilton lacks the traditional physical traits that NBA teams covet. Unlike Daniels however, Hamilton’s on the court skills have noticeable room for improvement. Were he to play another collegiate season demonstrating improved ball-handling, decision-making and a better three-point shot and Hamilton would be a surefire first-rounder, and potentially a lottery pick.
As it stands, the current consensus is that Hamilton would be fortunate to land in the second round. Many believe he will not be selected at all. With so much to gain by returning to school, Hamilton’s decision to leave becomes more puzzling, especially because of the decision’s immediacy.
When Daniels declared in late April of 2014, he knew in that moment that he was surrendering his remaining collegiate eligibility and going all-in on the draft. Hamilton was afforded the opportunity to weigh his options and garner feedback from NBA teams before making a final decision. Instead, he hired an agent (or intends to) and forfeited any chance at reconsidering. Neglecting to avail himself of valuable information over the coming weeks is, in some ways, more questionable than his decision to leave school in the first place. If you’re jumping out of an airplane, why not take the parachute?
Whatever the reason may be, it’s clear that Hamilton is leaving money on the table in the long-run by leaving college this offseason. Next year, the 30th pick in the NBA Draft (the final pick of the first round) will be guaranteed over $1 million per season. That number nearly doubles for lottery picks.
Daniels was able to maximize his abilities before trying to monetize them. In comparison, Hamilton’s decision looks short-sighted at best and misguided at worst.
Great article. I am stunned that he is making this decision. Lets hope it works out well for him but lets face it- the likelihood that it will is pretty low.
On a selfish, positive note- in three years when I am visiting Italy or say Greece, I can spend 8 euro’s and go see him playing in front of 5000 people in some dingy gym…
Good article, Ty. I agree that it will probably prove to be an unfortunate decision, and especially agree with your point that he had time before needing to make it.