With the 2013-2014 college basketball season in the rear-view mirror, the focus of coaches, fans and the media has turned squarely towards recruiting. Trying to lure high schoolers to campus has long been a full-time job for college coaches, but now more than ever, the pressure to land highly-ranked recruits approaches the pressure of winning on the court. The result is fierce competition among schools, and a media obsession that crowns recruiting winners like Kentucky the preseason favorites to win championships based solely on their star-studded freshman classes.
With NBA draft rules mandating a minimum of one year in college before turning pro, promising youngsters have become the most marketable stars in a college game that rarely sees its most naturally gifted players become upperclassmen. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has been a vocal advocate of expanding the collegiate minimum to include a sophomore season. But since the current draft rules were implemented in 2006, every recruit ranked at the top of his class – from Greg Oden to Andrew Wiggins – has departed for the professional ranks after playing only one season in college.
Stretch that to the top 10 and the average jumps to just over 1.5 seasons played. Meaning that, if you somehow convince a top 10 recruit to come to your university, he’s unlikely to play for more than one season. 49 of the 80 top ten recruits since ’06 played only one year (or zero due to loss of eligibility).
Many of those 49 one-year players since 2006 turned into stars in the NBA — Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, John Wall and Andre Drummond among them. A few made notable impacts in their lone collegiate seasons. Anthony Davis of Kentucky was the best player on a National Championship team. Davis and Kevin Durant won National Player of the Year awards. Several others, including Oden, made Final Fours. Yet, the inclusion of these high school stars on collegiate rosters often doesn’t translate to on-court success.
Of course, that shouldn’t be surprising. In basketball, experience makes you better — go figure. Coming into college as a highly-touted freshman may put you at an advantage over your fellow newcomers, but does not guarantee you equal standing with upperclassmen who, while perhaps not high school phenoms, have developed their games at the collegiate level. This year’s NCAA All-America team is a good example of this: three seniors, a junior and one freshman (Jabari Parker).
Which brings us to an interesting question that doesn’t seem to be asked by big time college programs: should you chase the top ten recruits, or is it more efficient to recruit down the prospect lists in hopes of developing All-America quality talent that will remain on your roster for more than one season?
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Since 2006, UConn has recruited 18 top-100 high schoolers. Two were ranked in the top ten (Drummond and DeAndre Daniels). The rest range from 13th (Ater Majok) to 98th (Shabazz Napier). Of note are Kemba Walker (14th), Stanley Robinson (14th), Ryan Boatright (42nd), Jerome Dyson (52nd) and Jeremy Lamb (76th).
Incoming freshman Daniel Hamilton currently ranks 14th. Rodney Purvis (set to be a sophomore at UConn following a transfer from NC State) ranked 12th in 2012.
While former UConn coach Jim Calhoun landed some notable star recruits in his career (Donyell Marshall, Richard Hamilton, Khalid El-Amin, Rudy Gay, Charlie Villanueva), it was the cultivation of talent that made his teams uniquely consistent and often very deep. He found players in unlikely places — like Doron Sheffer in Israel. He searched for potential and nurtured it into talent — like Emeka Okafor. And he took unheralded players and turned them into leaders — like Kevin Ollie.
As Ollie, now the head coach, recruits hard for the 2015 season, it will be worth watching whether he follows the current trend of chasing elite recruits — UConn currently has offers to top ten big men Diamond Stone and Cheick Diallo, and is courting star guard Malik Newman — or looks to build a long-term roster around less heralded high schoolers.
Following the recent de-commitment of guard Prince Ali (#45, ESPN), the only 2015 commitment is guard Turtle Jackson from Georgia — a 3-star recruit who is struggling in summer ball. UConn is going hard at guards Isaiah Briscoe (#20) and Jalen Adams (#33). Legit seven-footer Josh Sharma (#72) was on campus for a visit this week. And Ollie offered Norwalk, CT forward Steve Enoch a scholarship on Wednesday.
It’s players like these that Ollie can hope to build around, while a player like Stone or Newman will most likely not plan on being in Storrs for more than one season. It’s a difficult balance to strike, but one that’s critically important for roster construction going forward.
Note: All past rankings from Rivals — 2015 rankings from ESPN.
