UConn is in a Schrodinger’s Conference situation when it comes to realignment, because there are a lot of factors at play. The first factor is that the Big XII doesn’t actually need to expand right now. They got the rules changed that will allow them to play a Conference Championship Game, despite the fact that they already play a full round-robin schedule. That was generally seen by most as the primary driver of expansion, but given Oklahoma president David Boren’s continued push, it has become clear that there are other priorities. Oklahoma wants the healthiest possible Big XII, and that means more money, and more exposure, and the best way to get both of those things is to start a Big XII televsion network.
Can the Big XII get a network? It would need the blessing of ESPN, in addition to the various holders of its member schools’ Tier 3 media rights. What are Tier 3 media rights, you ask? Great question. I’m not an expert, but a basic primer is as follows. Tier 1 media rights are for over-the-air broadcasts. Games on CBS, for example, are Tier 1. Tier 2 are broadcast on cable channels such as ESPN and FOX Sports. Tier 3 are the games that are passed on by the media partners, and those rights are retained by the conference. This represents about a third of home football games and basketball games for each school, in addition to content for “non-revenue sports,” like baseball, wrestling, and in many cases, women’s basketball. When you watch UConn basketball on SNY, you’re watching Tier 3 games.
The Big XII’s media deal allows each school to sell its own Tier 3 rights. Since a conference network would mostly be supported by Tier 3 content, most of the schools would need to buy back those rights. For programs like Kansas State and Baylor, those are mostly regional media deals. They would be happy to buy the rights back, and that doesn’t appear to be much of a hurdle. But nothing is ever that simple. The wildcard in this situation – as it always is with the Big XII – is Texas. As you may have heard, Texas sold its Tier 3 rights to ESPN in the formation of the Longhorn Network, a 24-hour cable channel dedicated entirely to UT Athletics. ESPN pays Texas $15mm/year for these rights.
Here’s where it gets interesting, though. When the Longhorn Network was created, UT was riding high, and had come up with creative ideas for content. One of the big plans was to broadcast high school football games. The NCAA put the kibosh on that, claiming it created an unfair recruiting advantage. With Texas football down recently, the LHN has been struggling for compelling content, and ratings (and revenue) have been abysmal. But it’s still a full-time network with the appropriate infrastructure. In other words, if Texas and ESPN were so inclined, it would be easy to convert the LHN into a Big XII network. ESPN, for their part, would probably welcome the change. The LHN has been a money-loser from day one, and they’d likely be happy to be rid of it. But would Texas be willing to do the same? In order to keep the Big XII healthy in the long-term, it’s probably a necessity, and if Texas wants to keep the Big XII together, they may be willing to make some (very) small sacrifices. Assuming that they were willing, where does that put us?
The other big hurdle for the Big XII in terms of creating a network is that the Big XII has the smallest footprint and population reach of any P5 conference, at just under 40 million people (about 30 million of which are in Texas), which translates to just under 12 million homes. The Big Ten Network is in 90 million homes. A cable network is dead in the water without cable boxes to support it, so the Big XII needs to add schools with a larger reach.
Enter UConn.
You remember SNY? The network that paid handsomely for UConn’s Tier-3 rights, once upon a time? Well, SNY stands for SportsNet New York. As in New York City, as in the largest DMA in the US, at 7.4 million households. Included in the NYC DMA is a little place known as Fairfield County, CT. Add the approximately 1 million homes in the Hartford/New Haven DMA and, all by itself, UConn takes a potential Big XII network from 12 million homes to more than 20 million, with the potential for penetration into Boston, and its 2.4 million homes.
To put it plainly, if the Big XII wants a network, they need UConn. The Big XII wants a network. If Oklahoma gets their way I’d feel cautiously optimistic about UConn receiving an invite. UConn’s competition for the Big XII may boast more football history, but none of them can provide the same TV viewership as UConn.
